Refugee rates relate to population density
Comparing Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin, per unit of GDP with Total population (thousands), per unit of GDP across 196 countries, 2011–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.78
- Holding size constant
- +0.69
- Countries compared
- 196
- Period
- 2011–2025
What might link these
The correlation between refugees per GDP and total population per GDP might be driven by factors such as conflict or economic instability, which could affect both refugee numbers and population growth. A careful reader should consider the potential impact of a likely confounder, such as political instability. The relationship may not be straightforward, and further analysis is needed to understand the underlying mechanisms.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct link between population and refugees, when in fact other factors like conflict or economic conditions may be driving both variables.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.