Countries with weaker currencies tend to have more refugees per GDP
Comparing Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average) with Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin, per unit of GDP across 189 countries, 2022–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.56
- Holding size constant
- +0.46
- Countries compared
- 189
- Period
- 2022–2025
What might link these
Weaker currencies may reflect economic instability, which could drive emigration, while refugees often rely on local currency for support, potentially straining GDP. However, reverse causality is possible—refugee inflows might weaken exchange rates.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. Correlation does not imply causation; other factors like conflict or policy could drive both indicators.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.