More democratic countries have fewer refugees
Comparing Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin, per unit of GDP with Liberal democracy row, gaps filled across 169 countries, 2025–2025.
- Rank correlation
- -0.57
- Holding size constant
- -0.48
- Countries compared
- 169
- Period
- 2025–2025
What might link these
The relationship between liberal democracy and fewer refugees per GDP might be linked to stable political environments reducing the need for citizens to flee. However, a careful reader should consider the potential impact of other factors such as conflict and human rights records. A likely confounder could be the level of political stability or the presence of ongoing conflicts.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct causal link between democracy and refugee numbers, when in fact other underlying factors may be driving the relationship.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.