Countries with more young people tend to have higher refugee ratios per GDP.
Comparing Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin, per unit of GDP with Population aged 15-24 years (thousands), per capita across 193 countries, 2025–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.61
- Holding size constant
- +0.46
- Countries compared
- 193
- Period
- 2025–2025
What might link these
Young populations may correlate with higher conflict or displacement, but this could also reflect economic or policy differences. A careful reader should note that GDP and population controls reduce but don't eliminate confounding.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The partial correlation remains moderate, leaving room for unmeasured confounders like conflict history or migration policies.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.