Countries with stronger rule of law have fewer refugees.
Comparing Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin with Rule of Law Index across 172 countries, 2025–2025.
- Rank correlation
- -0.71
- Holding size constant
- -0.61
- Countries compared
- 172
- Period
- 2025–2025
What might link these
The negative correlation between the Rule of Law Index and the number of refugees under UNHCR mandate might suggest that countries with better governance and legal systems tend to produce fewer refugees. However, a careful reader should be cautious about potential confounders such as conflict, which could both weaken the rule of law and generate refugees. The relationship may also be influenced by other factors like political stability.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct causal link between rule of law and refugee numbers, when in fact other underlying factors like conflict or political instability might be driving both indicators.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.