Refugee origins linked to agriculture sector
Comparing Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin with Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (current LCU), per unit of GDP across 187 countries, 2025–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.59
- Holding size constant
- +0.40
- Countries compared
- 187
- Period
- 2025–2025
What might link these
The relationship between refugees and the agriculture sector might be influenced by factors such as conflict over resources or instability in countries with significant agricultural economies. A careful reader should consider the potential impact of climate change as a likely confounder. The connection could be due to various underlying social, economic, or political factors.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct causal link between agricultural sector size and refugee crises, when in fact the relationship is likely complex and influenced by multiple factors.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.