Young males per GDP linked to refugee numbers
Comparing Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin with Population ages 15-19, male, per unit of GDP across 193 countries, 2024–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.59
- Holding size constant
- +0.48
- Countries compared
- 193
- Period
- 2024–2025
What might link these
The relationship between young males per unit of GDP and refugee numbers might be influenced by factors such as political instability or economic hardship, which could disproportionately affect younger populations and lead to refugee crises. A careful reader should consider the potential impact of conflict as a likely confounder. The correlation suggests a noteworthy association but requires further investigation to understand the underlying mechanisms.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct link between demographics and refugee flows, when in fact other factors like war and persecution may be driving both indicators.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.