Refugee numbers per GDP correlate with primary pupil numbers per GDP.
Comparing Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin, per unit of GDP with Primary education, pupils, per unit of GDP across 185 countries, 2011–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.73
- Holding size constant
- +0.62
- Countries compared
- 185
- Period
- 2011–2025
What might link these
Countries with higher primary pupil numbers relative to GDP might also have higher numbers of refugees relative to GDP, potentially due to shared drivers like socio-economic development or aid dependency. However, this correlation does not imply that refugees cause an increase in pupils or vice versa.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The relationship might be driven by underlying socio-economic factors common to both refugee-hosting and education-focused countries, rather than a direct link between the two indicators.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.