Higher manure emissions in agriculture are strongly linked to higher methane emissions.
Comparing Emission Totals - Emissions (CH4) - IPCC Agriculture with Manure applied to Soils — Emissions (CO2eq) from N2O (AR5) across 167 countries, 2023–2050.
- Rank correlation
- +0.90
- Holding size constant
- +0.67
- Countries compared
- 167
- Period
- 2023–2050
What might link these
Both indicators reflect agricultural intensity, where livestock farming (a major methane source) often co-occurs with manure management (a nitrous oxide source). A careful reader should note that correlation doesn’t imply causation—other factors like livestock population or fertilizer use could drive both metrics.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The partial correlation drop after controlling for GDP/population suggests these factors may partially explain the relationship.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.