Higher crop residue emissions are strongly linked to higher methane emissions in agriculture.
Comparing Emission Totals - Emissions (CH4) - IPCC Agriculture with All Crops — Crop residues (Indirect emissions N2O) across 160 countries, 2023–2050.
- Rank correlation
- +0.88
- Holding size constant
- +0.53
- Countries compared
- 160
- Period
- 2023–2050
What might link these
Both indicators reflect agricultural activity intensity, where larger crop production may drive higher livestock-related methane emissions (e.g., via feed or manure). A careful reader should note that correlation doesn't imply causation—other factors like agricultural policies or technology adoption could drive both trends.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The partial correlation drops significantly after controlling for population and GDP, suggesting these variables may be masking a weaker underlying relationship.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.