Reserves linked to exports
Comparing Total reserves minus gold (current US$), per capita with Exports of goods, services and primary income (BoP, current US$), per capita across 171 countries, 2010–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.82
- Holding size constant
- +0.70
- Countries compared
- 171
- Period
- 2010–2025
What might link these
A country's total reserves minus gold may be linked to its exports of goods, services, and primary income, as a strong export sector can contribute to a country's foreign exchange reserves. However, a careful reader should be cautious about potential confounders, such as trade agreements or economic policies. A likely confounder is the country's overall economic openness.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct causal relationship between reserves and exports, when in fact other factors like economic stability or investment climate may be driving both indicators.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.