Expenditure linked to reserves
Comparing Gross national expenditure (constant 2015 US$), per capita with Total reserves minus gold (current US$), per capita across 142 countries, 2022–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.80
- Holding size constant
- +0.71
- Countries compared
- 142
- Period
- 2022–2025
What might link these
The relationship between gross national expenditure and total reserves may reflect a country's overall economic stability and ability to save. A careful reader should consider that trade balance could be a confounder, as countries with trade surpluses may have both higher reserves and expenditure. The correlation persists even after controlling for population and GDP, suggesting a more nuanced relationship.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. Correlation does not imply causation, and this link may be driven by underlying economic factors rather than a direct relationship between the two indicators.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.