GVA and exports are strongly linked
Comparing Exports of goods, services and primary income (BoP, current US$) with Gross value added at basic prices (GVA) (constant 2015 US$) across 181 countries, 2018–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.94
- Holding size constant
- +0.92
- Countries compared
- 181
- Period
- 2018–2025
What might link these
The strong correlation between GVA and exports might be due to the fact that countries with high economic output tend to have more goods and services to export. However, a careful reader should be cautious about inferring causation, as other factors like trade agreements and economic policies could also play a role. A likely confounder is the level of economic development.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by suggesting a direct causal link between domestic production and exports, when in fact other factors like global demand and trade relationships are also at play.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.