Higher economic output linked to larger share of global CO2 emissions
Comparing Gross value added at basic prices (GVA) (constant 2015 US$) with Share global cumulative co2 including land across 182 countries, 2024–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.90
- Holding size constant
- +0.62
- Countries compared
- 182
- Period
- 2024–2025
What might link these
Wealthier economies may drive higher production (GVA) but also emit more CO2. A careful reader should note that correlation doesn’t imply causation—other factors like industrial structure or energy sources could drive both. Population and GDP controls reduce but don’t eliminate confounding.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The high rank correlation may partly reflect that larger economies naturally account for more of global CO2.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.