Population growth linked to rural growth
Comparing Rural population, annual growth rate with Africa's Development Dynamics (AfDD) Table 03 - Annual population growth rate — Growth rate of population across 161 countries, 2030–2030.
- Rank correlation
- +0.64
- Holding size constant
- +0.59
- Countries compared
- 161
- Period
- 2030–2030
What might link these
The relationship between annual population growth rate and rural population growth rate might be driven by urbanization trends, where rural areas experience slower growth as people move to cities. A careful reader should consider the potential impact of migration patterns. A likely confounder could be government policies on urban development.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation might mislead by implying a direct causal link between overall population growth and rural growth, when in fact other factors like urbanization and migration are at play.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.