Countries with faster population growth tend to have lower output per worker.
Comparing Africa's Development Dynamics (AfDD) Table 03 - Annual population growth rate — Growth rate of population with Output per worker, GDP constant 2015 US $ (ILO modelled estimates) across 148 countries, 2030–2030.
- Rank correlation
- -0.68
- Holding size constant
- -0.52
- Countries compared
- 148
- Period
- 2030–2030
What might link these
Higher population growth often reflects younger, less‑experienced labor forces and lower capital per worker, which can depress productivity. At the same time, low productivity may discourage investment in family planning, reinforcing the pattern. A careful reader should note that unmeasured factors such as education levels or institutional quality could drive both variables.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The observed link may be confounded by omitted variables like human capital or governance that influence both population growth and worker productivity.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.