Taxes link to urban-rural divide
Comparing Taxes less subsidies on products (current US$), per capita with Urban and rural population 2050, per unit of GDP across 192 countries, 2011–2025.
- Rank correlation
- -0.78
- Holding size constant
- -0.68
- Countries compared
- 192
- Period
- 2011–2025
What might link these
The negative correlation might suggest that countries with higher taxes on products have a smaller urban-rural population divide per unit of GDP, possibly due to redistribution policies. However, a careful reader should consider the potential impact of other economic factors, such as government spending on social welfare programs, which could be a likely confounder. The relationship may also be influenced by differences in tax structures and economic systems across countries.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct causal link between taxation policies and urban-rural population dynamics, when in fact the relationship may be driven by underlying economic and social factors.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.