Higher GDP per capita linked to lower urban/rural population per GDP unit by 2050
Comparing GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) with Urban and rural population 2050, per unit of GDP across 209 countries, 2011–2025.
- Rank correlation
- -0.95
- Holding size constant
- -0.91
- Countries compared
- 209
- Period
- 2011–2025
What might link these
Wealthier countries may invest more in urban infrastructure, reducing the need for rural population per unit of GDP. However, reverse causation or omitted factors like policy priorities could blur the link.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The strong rank correlation might reflect structural differences in how GDP and population are measured across countries.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.