Higher agriculture GDP share correlates with lower per capita urban/rural population in 2050
Comparing Agriculture share gdp with Urban and rural population 2050, per capita across 197 countries, 2025–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.62
- Holding size constant
- +0.55
- Countries compared
- 197
- Period
- 2025–2025
What might link these
Countries with larger agricultural sectors may have slower urbanization or lower projected population density, possibly due to rural labor demands or slower economic transition. A careful reader should note that this is observational and not causal, and that historical trends or policy differences could drive both variables.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. Correlation does not imply causation, and unmeasured confounders like industrialization pace or climate policies could influence both indicators.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.