Primary enrollment linked to population growth
Comparing Enrolment in primary education, both sexes (number), per capita with Population (UN estimates and projections), annual growth rate across 117 countries, 2030–2030.
- Rank correlation
- +0.83
- Holding size constant
- +0.77
- Countries compared
- 117
- Period
- 2030–2030
What might link these
The relationship between primary enrollment and population growth rate might be driven by factors such as increased demand for education in growing populations. A careful reader should consider that urbanization could be a confounder, as it can influence both enrollment rates and population growth. The correlation persists even after controlling for population and GDP, suggesting a more complex relationship.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct link between population growth and education enrollment, when in fact other factors like government policy or cultural shifts may be driving the relationship.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.