Older men linked to labour force growth
Comparing Persons outside the labour force (ILO modelled estimates) (15+), annual growth rate with Population ages 70-74, male, per capita across 185 countries, 2025–2027.
- Rank correlation
- -0.77
- Holding size constant
- -0.71
- Countries compared
- 185
- Period
- 2025–2027
What might link these
The relationship between the proportion of males aged 70-74 and the growth rate of persons outside the labour force may be influenced by retirement patterns, as older males leaving the workforce could contribute to the growth in persons outside the labour force. A careful reader should consider the potential impact of pension policies as a likely confounder. The correlation persists even after controlling for population and GDP, suggesting a more complex relationship.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct causal link between the two indicators, when in fact the relationship may be driven by underlying demographic or economic factors.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.