Drought exposure linked to precipitation
Comparing Annual precipitation with Historical exposure to drought — Cropland soil moisture anomaly across 149 countries, 2025–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.60
- Holding size constant
- +0.60
- Countries compared
- 149
- Period
- 2025–2025
What might link these
The relationship between annual precipitation and historical exposure to drought might be influenced by climate patterns, with areas receiving less precipitation potentially experiencing more drought. However, a careful reader should consider the role of irrigation practices as a likely confounder. This could affect the severity of drought exposure in areas with sufficient precipitation but inadequate water management.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. Correlation does not imply causation, and other factors like agricultural practices and water management infrastructure could be driving this relationship.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.