Young male population share and household spending show strong inverse link.
Comparing Population ages 05-09, male, per unit of GDP with Households and NPISHs Final consumption expenditure (current US$), per capita across 182 countries, 2011–2025.
- Rank correlation
- -0.98
- Holding size constant
- -0.97
- Countries compared
- 182
- Period
- 2011–2025
What might link these
A higher proportion of young males relative to GDP appears associated with lower per capita household expenditure. This might reflect demographic shifts impacting workforce participation and dependent populations, or economic policies prioritizing certain demographics over general consumption. However, the relationship could be influenced by unmeasured factors affecting both population structure and economic activity.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The strong negative correlation, even after controlling for population and GDP, may not reflect a direct causal link and could be driven by other socioeconomic factors.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.