Higher fertility rates linked to fewer years of schooling globally
Comparing Value added in the agricultural sector as of gdp vs gdp per capita with Fertility rate vs mean years of schooling across 198 countries, 2024–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.73
- Holding size constant
- +0.63
- Countries compared
- 198
- Period
- 2024–2025
What might link these
Countries with lower education levels may have higher fertility rates due to cultural norms or economic factors, while wealthier nations with more schooling tend to have lower fertility. A careful reader should note that correlation doesn’t imply causation—other factors like healthcare access or gender equality could drive both trends.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The relationship could be influenced by omitted variables like healthcare quality or urbanization rates.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.