Manure and fermentation emissions linked
Comparing Enteric Fermentation — Emissions (CO2eq) from CH4 (AR5) with Manure left on Pasture — Emissions (CO2eq) from N2O (AR5) across 181 countries, 2023–2050.
- Rank correlation
- +0.95
- Holding size constant
- +0.82
- Countries compared
- 181
- Period
- 2023–2050
What might link these
The strong correlation between manure left on pasture and enteric fermentation emissions might be due to the fact that both are related to livestock farming practices. A careful reader should be cautious about assuming a direct causal link, as factors like agricultural land use or livestock population could be confounding variables. Livestock density is a likely confounder that could influence both indicators.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct relationship between the two emissions types, when in fact they might both be driven by a third factor like livestock farming intensity.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.