Countries with higher synthetic fertilizer emissions tend to have higher methane from crop burning.
Comparing Emission Totals - Emissions (CO2eq) from CH4 (AR5) - Burning - Crop residues with Synthetic Fertilizers — Emissions (CO2eq) from N2O (AR5) across 146 countries, 2023–2050.
- Rank correlation
- +0.76
- Holding size constant
- +0.42
- Countries compared
- 146
- Period
- 2023–2050
What might link these
Both indicators may reflect intensive agricultural practices, where higher synthetic fertilizer use could correlate with more crop residue burning, releasing N2O and CH4 respectively. However, the weakened correlation after controlling for population and GDP suggests economic development or scale may drive part of the relationship.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. Correlation does not imply causation; other agricultural or policy factors could explain the link.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.