Similar economies have similar age distributions
Comparing Population ages 45-49, female, per unit of GDP with Population ages 30-34, male, per unit of GDP across 214 countries, 2011–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.97
- Holding size constant
- +0.96
- Countries compared
- 214
- Period
- 2011–2025
What might link these
The strong correlation between these indicators might be due to demographic transitions that occur as countries develop economically. A careful reader should consider education levels as a potential confounder, as they often influence both economic development and demographic structures. The relationship could be driven by underlying factors rather than direct causation.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct link between the two age groups, when in fact they may both be responding to broader economic and social trends.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.