Democracy and power centralization are linked
Comparing Electoral democracy with Centralization of Political Power Index across 172 countries, 1948–2025.
- Rank correlation
- -0.80
- Holding size constant
- -0.76
- Countries compared
- 172
- Period
- 1948–2025
What might link these
The negative correlation between electoral democracy and centralization of political power might suggest that countries with more democratic processes tend to have less centralized power structures. A careful reader should be cautious about potential confounders such as economic development or cultural factors. Education level could be a likely confounder influencing both indicators.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a causal relationship between democracy and centralization without considering other influencing factors.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.