Refugees linked to democracy features
Comparing Key features of democracy with Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin, per capita across 172 countries, 2025–2025.
- Rank correlation
- -0.58
- Holding size constant
- -0.51
- Countries compared
- 172
- Period
- 2025–2025
What might link these
The correlation might suggest that countries with more democratic features tend to have fewer refugees, possibly due to better governance and stability. However, a careful reader should consider the potential influence of other factors, such as conflict and human rights, which could be driving both indicators. A likely confounder is the level of political stability in a country.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a causal relationship between democracy and refugee numbers, when in fact other underlying factors may be at play.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.