Male 40-44 population linked to lower government spending
Comparing Population ages 40-44, male, per unit of GDP with General government final consumption expenditure (constant 2015 US$), per capita across 167 countries, 2018–2025.
- Rank correlation
- -0.95
- Holding size constant
- -0.91
- Countries compared
- 167
- Period
- 2018–2025
What might link these
The strong negative correlation between the proportion of males aged 40-44 in a country's population relative to its GDP and government final consumption expenditure per capita might suggest that countries with a larger proportion of working-age males have different economic priorities or structures. A careful reader should consider the potential impact of education levels, as more educated populations might both contribute to a stronger economy and influence government spending priorities. This relationship could be influenced by a likely confounder such as the overall age structure of the population.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct relationship between the two indicators when, in fact, it might be driven by underlying demographic or economic factors.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.