Economic growth and consumer spending growth move together across nations
Comparing Gross value added at basic prices (GVA) (constant LCU), annual growth rate with Final consumption expenditure (constant 2015 US$), annual growth rate across 163 countries, 2018–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.64
- Holding size constant
- +0.63
- Countries compared
- 163
- Period
- 2018–2025
What might link these
The growth in an economy's value added tends to align with the growth in how much consumers spend. This relationship is expected as increased economic activity often leads to higher incomes and thus more spending. However, the correlation doesn't prove that one causes the other; both could be influenced by a common factor, such as overall economic policy or global economic trends.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation doesn't rule out the possibility that other, unmeasured factors are driving both indicators.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.