Male child population correlates with refugee numbers across countries
Comparing Age population, age 05, male, interpolated with Refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR by country or territory of origin, gaps filled across 196 countries, 2025–2025.
- Rank correlation
- +0.67
- Holding size constant
- +0.40
- Countries compared
- 196
- Period
- 2025–2025
What might link these
Countries with larger young male populations may face higher emigration pressures, but this could reflect broader demographic or conflict trends rather than a direct link. A careful reader should note that historical conflicts or policy changes might drive both metrics.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The relationship could be driven by unmeasured factors like war or economic instability, which influence both refugee flows and age structures.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.