More wheat crop waste may link to higher nitrogen emissions from fertilizers.
Comparing Wheat — Crop residues (Emissions N2O) with Nutrient nitrogen N (total) — Indirect emissions (N2O that leaches) (Synthetic fertilizers) across 109 countries, 2023–2050.
- Rank correlation
- +0.71
- Holding size constant
- +0.51
- Countries compared
- 109
- Period
- 2023–2050
What might link these
Both indicators relate to agricultural nitrogen use—crop residues from wheat production and indirect emissions from synthetic fertilizers. A confounder could be agricultural intensity or fertilizer application rates, which drive both metrics.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The partial correlation remains strong, but unmeasured factors like farming practices or regional policies could inflate the link.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.