N2O emissions linked to synthetic fertilizer use
Comparing Emission Totals - Emissions (N2O) - IPCC Agriculture with Synthetic Fertilizers — Emissions (N2O) across 165 countries, 2023–2050.
- Rank correlation
- +0.86
- Holding size constant
- +0.57
- Countries compared
- 165
- Period
- 2023–2050
What might link these
The relationship between emissions from agriculture and synthetic fertilizer use might be due to the nitrogen content in fertilizers, which can lead to N2O emissions. A careful reader should consider that agricultural practices, such as tillage and crop rotation, could also influence emissions. A likely confounder is the type of crops being cultivated, which can affect fertilizer application and emission rates.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation might mislead by implying a direct causal link, when in fact other factors like agricultural practices and crop types could be driving the relationship.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.