Working-age population linked to GDP
Comparing Gross Domestic Product, GDP in millions constant 2021 international $ at PPP (ILO modelled estimates) with Working-age population (UN estimates and projections) (15+) across 180 countries, 2030–2030.
- Rank correlation
- +0.80
- Holding size constant
- +0.55
- Countries compared
- 180
- Period
- 2030–2030
What might link these
The relationship between working-age population and GDP might be driven by the contribution of a skilled and able workforce to economic output. However, a careful reader should be cautious about assuming a direct causal link, as factors like education and healthcare could also play a role. Urbanization is a likely confounder, as it can influence both indicators.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct causal relationship between working-age population and GDP, when in fact other factors may be driving the association.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.