Urban growth slows with export increase
Comparing Number of people living in urban and rural areas, annual growth rate with Exports of goods and services (BoP, current US$), per capita across 183 countries, 2025–2025.
- Rank correlation
- -0.65
- Holding size constant
- -0.52
- Countries compared
- 183
- Period
- 2025–2025
What might link these
The negative correlation between exports per capita and urban growth rate might be linked to economic development patterns, where increased exports could lead to investments in rural areas or slow urbanization due to shifting economic opportunities. A careful reader should be cautious about the potential impact of education or technological advancements as a confounder. The relationship could be influenced by various factors not accounted for in the given indicators.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by suggesting a direct relationship between exports and urban growth, when in fact, other economic or societal factors might be driving the observed trend.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.