Countries with more young males have lower output per worker.
Comparing Population ages 0-14, male, per unit of GDP with Output per worker, GDP constant 2021 international $ at PPP (ILO modelled estimates) across 181 countries, 2024–2027.
- Rank correlation
- -0.94
- Holding size constant
- -0.90
- Countries compared
- 181
- Period
- 2024–2027
What might link these
The strong negative correlation might be linked to the dependency ratio, where a larger proportion of non-working individuals affects the overall productivity. A careful reader should consider education and healthcare systems as potential confounders. The relationship could be influenced by various socioeconomic factors.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct causal link between the youth population and productivity, when in fact other underlying factors may be driving the relationship.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.