Population growth rate linked to lower capital formation
Comparing Africa's Development Dynamics (AfDD) Table 05 - Demographic estimates — Population, annual growth rate with Gross capital formation (current US$), per capita across 134 countries, 2030–2030.
- Rank correlation
- -0.70
- Holding size constant
- -0.58
- Countries compared
- 134
- Period
- 2030–2030
What might link these
The negative correlation between population growth rate and gross capital formation per capita might suggest that countries with rapidly growing populations struggle to invest in capital. A careful reader should consider that education levels or institutional stability could be a confounder. The relationship could be driven by various underlying factors, not directly by the indicators themselves.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct causal link between population growth and investment, when in fact other factors like government policies or economic stability might be driving the relationship.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.