Exports drop as agriculture grows
Comparing Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (constant LCU), per unit of GDP with Goods exports (BoP, current US$), per capita across 181 countries, 2016–2025.
- Rank correlation
- -0.56
- Holding size constant
- -0.44
- Countries compared
- 181
- Period
- 2016–2025
What might link these
A possible link between these indicators could be the structure of a country's economy, with a focus on agriculture potentially reducing the need for imported goods, thus decreasing exports. However, a careful reader should be cautious about the role of economic diversification and industrialization as a likely confounder. The relationship might also be influenced by other factors such as trade policies and geographical location.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct causal relationship between agricultural growth and reduced exports, when in fact other economic factors are at play.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.