Fewer under-five deaths linked to more exports
Comparing Exports of goods and services (BoP, current US$) with Number of under-five deaths, male, per unit of GDP across 179 countries, 2018–2025.
- Rank correlation
- -0.57
- Holding size constant
- -0.83
- Countries compared
- 179
- Period
- 2018–2025
What might link these
A possible link between these indicators could be that countries with stronger economies, as reflected by higher exports, are more likely to invest in healthcare, leading to fewer under-five deaths. However, a careful reader should be cautious about other factors that could influence this relationship, such as the level of education or access to clean water. A likely confounder could be the overall level of development or governance in a country.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct causal relationship between exports and under-five deaths, when in fact the relationship may be driven by underlying factors such as overall economic development.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.