Labour force growth linked to youth population
Comparing Labour force (ILO modelled estimates) (15+), annual growth rate with Population ages 0-14, total, per capita across 185 countries, 2025–2027.
- Rank correlation
- +0.89
- Holding size constant
- +0.85
- Countries compared
- 185
- Period
- 2025–2027
What might link these
The relationship between labour force growth and population ages 0-14 might be driven by demographic changes, where a larger youth population eventually enters the workforce. However, a careful reader should consider education levels as a potential confounder, as they can influence both the youth population's future labour force participation and the current labour force growth. The correlation persists even after controlling for population and GDP, suggesting a more nuanced relationship.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. This correlation could mislead by implying a direct causal link between youth population and labour force growth, when in fact other factors like education and economic opportunities may play a significant role.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.