Countries with more synthetic fertilizer use emit more methane from wheat residue burning
Comparing Wheat — Burning crop residues (Emissions CH4) with Nutrient nitrogen N (total) — Synthetic fertilizers (Emissions N2O) across 109 countries, 2023–2050.
- Rank correlation
- +0.70
- Holding size constant
- +0.48
- Countries compared
- 109
- Period
- 2023–2050
What might link these
Intensive agriculture may drive both high synthetic fertilizer use (releasing N2O) and crop residue burning (releasing CH4), especially in wheat-dependent economies. However, the correlation could also reflect broader industrialization or agricultural policies rather than a direct link.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The partial correlation remains moderate, leaving room for unmeasured confounders like agricultural subsidies or climate-driven farming practices.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.