Higher manure emissions strongly linked to total emissions across countries
Comparing Emission Totals - Emissions (CO2eq) from N2O (AR5) - IPCC Agriculture with Manure left on Pasture — Emissions (CO2eq) (AR5) across 167 countries, 2023–2050.
- Rank correlation
- +0.94
- Holding size constant
- +0.77
- Countries compared
- 167
- Period
- 2023–2050
What might link these
Agricultural activity likely drives both indicators, as livestock farming contributes to both N2O emissions and manure left on pasture. However, the partial correlation (0.77) suggests other factors (e.g., industrial emissions unrelated to agriculture) also play a role.
Why this is not proof of anything
This is a correlation across countries, not an experiment. It cannot show that either indicator causes the other, and both may simply follow a third thing. The high rank correlation may reflect shared agricultural dominance rather than a direct relationship.
The second figure above repeats the measurement with national population and income held constant. It is the more conservative number: a relationship that largely disappears there was mostly telling you that larger, richer countries have more of most things.
How this was measured
Both indicators were ranked across every country reporting each, and the two rankings compared — ranks rather than raw values, because a handful of very large countries can otherwise manufacture a relationship on their own. The calculation is arithmetic over figures already published on this site; the commentary above is drafted from the two indicator names and the resulting coefficients.